Sift through this deliciously written 196-page policy paper from the Congressional Budget Office (
CBO) entitled, "
Key Issues in Analyzing Major Health Insurance Proposals."
It's edited by Robert Sunshine, Acting Director of the
CBO, but about the only ray of sunshine emanating from the report is that there
could be be a solution, but there's no Silver Bullet.
The problem of the
nonelderly uninsured is a somewhat easy problem to mend. An expansion of
SCHIP programs through state funding with federal subsidies would certainly be a step in the right direction. Surprisingly, Federal subsidies to employers offering coverage might also avail more Americans actively at-work affordable coverage as well.
Put your economics hat on for a moment and entertain the
CBOs proposition of federally-based subsidies for employers offering health insurance to their employees:
Changes in Subsidies for Employment-Based Insurance.For several reasons, large employers are more likely than small employers to offer health insurance. Reflecting that fact, the response of firms to changes in the subsidies for employment-based insurance would depend not only on the impact of those changes on the net price of insurance but also on the size of their workforce. To estimate the likelihood that firms would offer (or drop) health insurance in response to a change in price,
CBO multiplies the
average change in price for a firm’s employees by an “
elasticity of offer”—a factor that measures how employers’ offers of insurance respond to changes in price. The elasticity of offer varies with the size of the firm and is based on estimates from several studies
For example, for firms with between 25 and 99 employees,
CBO estimates the elasticity of offer to be -0.38; thus, a
10 percent increase in the premiums for firms of that size would cause a 4 percent decline in the number of employees offered coverage. Consistent with the available
evidence, the relevant “price” in that calculation is the total cost of insurance to the employer and employee combined—net of any federal (or state) subsidies
—not
just the portion that the employer pays directly.
Consider, for example, how firms of different sizes would
respond to
a subsidy proposal that reduced the net price of
employment-based insurance by 20 percent.
CBOanticipates that such a subsidy would increase the availability
of health insurance at very small firms (those with
fewer than 25 employees) by about 23 percent (the
20 percent reduction in price multiplied by -1.14, the
elasticity of offer). The share of employees at such firms
that are currently offered insurance is estimated to be
48 percent, so the proposal would be expected to increase
that share by 23 percent, to 59 percent, or a gain of
3.4 million workers. Larger firms would be less responsive
to the subsidy, and analogous calculations for all
firms would yield an overall increase in the offer rate of
about 6 percent (an average elasticity of offer of -0.28
times -20 percent); that translates into an increase of about
6 million in the number of workers offered coverage,
roughly half of whom would have been uninsured
before receiving the new offer.
At the employee level, the report also
discuss some "sticks" that can be used to
incent employees to make more informed choices when selecting a health plan:
Some proposals would make consumers bear the cost of their health insurance more directly, either by paying the full cost themselves or by paying the added cost of more expensive policies. Proposals could achieve that goal by:
- Reducing or eliminating the current tax subsidy for employment-based insurance, perhaps replacing it with a tax credit or some other fixed-dollar subsidy (discussed above); or
- Establishing a managed competition system, in which a range of plans is offered and the employer’s or the government’s contribution to the premium is a fixed amount—for example, the premium of the average plan or the least expensive plan available—thus requiring consumers to pay the additional cost of more expensive plans.
Those approaches—taken separately or in combination— would provide stronger incentives for
enrollees to weigh the expected benefits and costs of policies when making their decisions about purchasing insurance.
There's more meat in the report, but it does reveal the government's ability to influence change. The real commentary then, is whether or not the political parties on Capitol Hill can
coalesce on a finding a solution together.
See, there is a
ray of hope
after all, but it will take all parties, Federal Government, State Government, Employers and employees to band together to make it work.
-JS